Inbox From Hell, Opponents From Heaven
As Mitt Romney delivered his victory speech after a resounding win in the New Hampshire primary he looked every inch the ideal Republican candidate: articulate, telegenic and quite conspicuously prosperous. Even the details, from the sparkling white teeth to the pretty wife and the strapping sons behind him spoke of a man typifying all the Republicans value in America.
Mr Romney has now won both the Iowa caucaus and the New Hampshire primary, the latter by a comfortable margin. History shows candidates who win both go on to win the party nomination and the former Massachusetts governor will almost certainly wrap up matters if he can win in the first southern primary in South Carolina.
A look at the other contestants make Mr Romney's position look even more impregnable, The only other candidate to perform reasonably in both votes was Ron Paul, a Texas Representative. Mr Paul finished a strong third in Iowa and then backed this up with a highly respectable second place in New Hampshire, albeit well behind Mr Romney. He has a battery of young, enthusiastic supporters and still plenty money but although his libertarian, anti-war stance excites them, it is anathema to the traditional Conservative base of the party. With plenty of cash Mr Paul will stay in the race for a while yet but his fundamental principles are so at odds with the main base in the party that it is inconceivable that he could be elected.
Can An Anti-Romney Candidate Emerge?
The only realistic chance of Mr Romney not being elected would be if his opponents (who delight in calling him a "Massachusetts moderate", as if there could be no bigger insult) could unite around an anti-Romney social conservative candidate. The right accuse Romney of "flip-flopping" on major issues such as abortion (he says that he is deadset against it but took a more pragmatic approach in Massachusetts) and healthcare (he denounces Obamacare yet in many ways it mirrors a smaller scheme Mr Romney introduced in his home state). Corroborating this feeling of a lack of enthusiasm is the fact that Mr Romney has consistently flat-lined in the early to mid 20s in national opinion polls, showing that whilst his support is solid, there are many more who don't have confidence in him.
The trouble with choosing an anti-Romney candidate is, though, that there are subtle differences in each of the other's particular brand of social conservatism and none has clearly shown themselves to be the best man for this particular role. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum came with eight votes of Mr Romney in Iowa, where he campaigned vigorously, but was promptly trounced in the more moderate New Hampshire. Opponents point to the fact the last time he faced a significant electorate, in Pennsylvania, he was heartily rejected by the voters that know him best. With a limited campaign team and lacking significant funds, Mr Santorum will face an uphill battle in South Carolina and the following primary in Florida, where television ads are imperative.
The picture looks even less optimistic for former House Leader Newt Gingrich. Mr Gingrich's performance in both Iowa and New Hampshire was poor and he is relying on an improvement as the race heads south (he represented Georgia). Questions exist as to whether someone with a conspicuously jet-set lifestyle can strike a chord with ordinary voters, particularly at this time of economic hardship. From an affluent family, and with 200 million Dollars of assets, Mr Romney can hardly claim to be from the wrong side of the tracks but at least his wife doesn't have a million Dollar credit line at Tiffany's.
Rick Perry looked some months ago to be the folksy Southerner who could inspire the Republican faithful yet reassure the rest of the electorate at the same time. The Texas governor can be charming and funny - sometimes even intentionally so - but his campaign has never recovered from those excruciating minutes of live television when he struggled in vain to name the three Government agencies he would abolish, ending in a prescient "Oops". He was promptly typecast by Democratic leaning journalists as "George Bush without the intellect", only half in jest. With poor results in the first two votes, and a war-chest which is almost dry, Mr Perry's fortune shows no sign of turning.
In short, there is no obvious candidate to challenge Mr Romney. This matters as, although in many ways the perfect GOP nominee, Mr Romney can appear wooden and uninspiring at times. Add to this the questions the right of the party have over whether he is at heart one of them are not and the limitations become clear. But these limitations are significantly less serious than the cases against all the other candidates meaning that it will be major shock if the former Massachusetts governor is not the Republican representative.
Obama Cares
And therein lies the rub. President Barack Obama was granted the inbox from hell when he took over the job: long, bloody, distant conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan; an economy which had just imploded amid an orgy of NINJA loans, CDOs and almost every other acronym you can think of; a Treasury which ran significant deficits in the boom years which would materially restrict the room for fiscal manoeuvre in the bust years; and a health and education system which, for all its excellence at the top, leaves tens of millions of citizens effectively disenfranchised.
The polling figures for the last six months have not made for pretty readings for the President's advisers. He has drawn consistently negative figures on the "favorable: non-favorable spread" and has regularly trailed that most robust of opponents, the hypothetical Republican opponent. In truth, though, there is no tougher candidate than this often discussed but rarely sighted, theoretical Republican nominee, someone who has never flip-flopped on important social issues, has no voting history to be crawled over and, perhaps most importantly, an individual who can mean all things to all Republicans. And, at the risk of giving away national security secrets, President Obama will not face this mythical opponent in November's presidential election but Mr Romney instead and, as that has become increasingly likely, President Obama's numbers have improved. Last week his figures were favorable for the first time in six months, with the favorable figure being exactly the 48% which is seen as the rule of thumb threshold which an incumbent must reach in order to be re-elected.
Of course Mr Romney would not be President Obama's dream choice of opponent. That would be someone like Mr Santorum, whose hard line positions on abortion (not acceptable even in the case of rape) and same gender marriage make him a man of principle for many Republican diehards but an intolerant ideologue to independents. Obama's second choice could conceivably happen though, if Ron Paul stands as an independent and thereby deprives Mr Romney of important Republican votes. Although unlikely to be huge, these votes would make a massive difference in a close election, particularly in the key battle ground states. Indeed, were Mr Paul to stand and receive over 5% of the vote it is almost impossible to see how Mr Romney could end in the White House.
And even if this were not to happen, Mr Romney is likely to struggle to win the presidency. Although gifted the man finds it difficult to excite even paid up Republican members, and as a Mormon his faith is unlikely to excite the grass roots the way a charismatic Baptist might - only 2% of American's are Mormons and many traditional denominations do not accept it as a Christian religion. And there is another issue. Recent history shows that incumbents rarely lose, and when they do they lose to someone who offers a massive contract in style - the youthful, incorrigible Bill Clinton to the patrician George Bush Senior; the sunny disposition of Ronald Reagan against the fraught Jimmy Carter. As a stiff, slightly aloof technocrat Mr Romney does not offer anything the President doesn't. In style he is Obama without the post-modern cool and rhetorical flourish.
All of which is positive for President Obama. He has had his problems since his landslide victory but one constant in his career is his good fortune in elections. In 2008 he faced John McCain, respected but unloved by the Republican party. During his election to the Senate in 2004 his initial Republican opponent withdrew from the race amid sensational divorce papers being made public. Nothing as spectacular is likely to happen in this race but the overall picture is clear: for all his bad luck in office, President Obama's good fortune as a campaigner continues.